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Fantasy football is far from an exact science, but there are scientific methods one can use to try to better craft a draft strategy.
Anyone who enters a draft without reviewing the current year’s average draft positions or the following season’s statistics is willingly handicapping themselves in their league.
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ADP is especially important because it gives drafters a general sense of which positions they need to target in each round.
Knowing which positions are deeper and can be put off into the later rounds versus which positions run out of reliable talent quickly can make or break a person’s fantasy football season.
For example, the general consensus so far for this upcoming fantasy season has wide receivers going faster than running backs, at least within the first 100 draft picks.
But while receivers are going quicker than ball carriers, there is more depth to choose from among pass-catchers.
There is especially viable depth among the rookie wide receivers, including the four that were selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Despite their impressive resumes and the security that their lofty draft positions bring, all of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison have been generally available in the later rounds of most fantasy drafts this season.
Fantasy football predictions |
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|---|---|---|---|
| First round player stats | |||
| 1 | Drake London | 16.5 Avg | 33 Yds |
| 2 | Garrett Wilson | 10.0 Avg | 30 Yds |
| 3 | Chris Olave | 0 Avg | 0 Yds |
| 4 | Jameson Williams | 19 Avg | 9.0 Yds |
While it’s always risky to bet on a rookie becoming a consistent contributor for one’s fantasy team, the gamble has become more and more profitable over the past few years, at least for first-year wide receivers.
Take 2022’s rookie wide receiver cast for example.
In the first round of the draft, six wide receivers were selected: Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, and Treylon Burks.
These were the 41st (38), 53rd (21), 42nd (23), 69th (147 inj), 58th (43), and (81) 44th-ranked players at receiver in terms of average draft position for the 2022 fantasy season.
Nearly all of these players outperformed their ADP by a wide margin, as London placed 38th among wide receivers in fantasy scoring in a standard league, Wilson finished 21st, Olave 23rd, and Dotson 43rd.
Burks was the only one to have a truly disappointing year in terms of ADP, as Williams only played in six games due to injury.
The fantasy football world moves nearly as fast the actual NFL does in terms of statistics and analytics, so the stock of rookie wide receivers is sure to rise quickly.
This may be the last year to capitalize on the depth of rookie pass-catchers in the later round.
Fantasy Volcano 2023 NFL Projections:@ChicagoBears Final Update
Half PPR Pts (Rank):
Justin Fields: 276 (9)
Khalil Herbert: 123 (38)
Roschon Johnson: 72 (59)
D.J. Moore: 152 (26)
Chase Claypool: 84 (76)
Darnell Mooney: 87 (73)
Cole Kmet: 111 (13)#FantasyFootball #DaBears pic.twitter.com/GQubqHaC7a— Fantasy Volcano (@FantasyVolcano) September 4, 2023
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| Title: Rookie wide receivers present great value for 2023 fantasy football season
| Author: Andy Quach
| Date: Sep 4th, 2023
